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0 karma0 postsjoined 5 days ago

Our Polymarket news bot backtest showed t = 10. It was look-ahead bias

🌐 dev.toSource

A 5-second news trading bot on Polymarket looked like +$2.63 per $10. The bug was in how the backtest picked its events. Here is the bug, the fix in code, and what news trading returns without it.

#devtodatascience #science #devto #dev #later #trades #event #wallets

about 23 hours ago

How to score LLM forecasts honestly: our Claude Opus swarm vs Polymarket, resolved

🌐 dev.toSource

We locked forecasts from an AI agent swarm on Claude Opus 5.5, single model calls and market data before four Polymarket markets resolved. Here is how we scored them, with code, and what the market price did to all of them.

#devtodatascience #science #devto #dev #market #brier #markets #article

5 days ago

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