By Joseph Busby, the founder and director of Reality-Based Analysis Group (RBAG), an independent geopolitical analysis firm founded in Vienna in 2017 and affiliated with the Association for the Promotion of International Development and Stability (APIDS, apids.at). Originally published at the RBAG site.

I. The Hidden Price Increase

Since the United States and Israel began the war with Iran on 28 February 2026, the cost of ordinary life has climbed on both sides of the Atlantic and across the world. Between mid-February and mid-October the average price of regular gasoline in the United States rose about 48 percent, from $2.92 a gallon to $4.33, and American households that heat with oil are facing a similar increase at $6.14 a gallon from $4.07. In the European Union a litre of diesel rose 34 percent, from €1.59 to €2.14. Europe’s benchmark gas price has nearly tripled, from about €30 a megawatt-hour in mid-February to about €87 in mid-October, its highest level since the energy crisis of 2022.…