Polymarket’s Ethiopia election market saw more than $41 million traded on a candidate who did not become prime minister, while just $173,000 was wagered on the eventual winner. The pattern forms part of more than $600 million in combined volume across the platform’s Ethiopia and Romania election markets, where trading continued after major electoral events.

The activity raises questions about how long election contracts should remain open and whether headline volume reflects genuine interest. Much of the trading involved long-shot or losing candidates, according to WIRED’s investigation.

Trading continued after the results

Ethiopia’s Prosperity Party won 438 parliamentary seats in the summer election, compared with 13 for its closest competitor, giving Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed a path to another five-year term.…