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BY Jennifer Mattson

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Historically, midterms have been good for business in the months following the elections. Over the past 70 years, U.S. stocks, for the most part, have made gains in the months between midterm elections and the end of the year—and since 1980, the S&P 500 index has gone up 13.7% on average in the year after the midterm elections, according to a CNBC analysis.

But 2026 could be different. As things stand, it remains “uniquely difficult” to predict how this year’s midterms will affect the market, according to the Pew Research Center.

Here are a few reasons why.

Going into the midterms, the markets see uncertainty

If there’s one thing the markets do not like, it’s uncertainty—and on the eve of the 2026 midterm elections, there is plenty of it.

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From the markets’ perspective, it remains unclear…