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Market Outlook

Today's Market

Summary

We are facing an inflationary shock, and the Federal Funds futures are starting to price a Fed hike.

The 10Y yields are rising driven by rising inflation expectations, currently at the edge of de-anchoring.

The 30Y yields breached the 5% level, led by rising real yields, due to worries about the US fiscal sustainability.

The stock market still believes that the inflationary shock can be avoided, but it's likely to face a rude awakening.

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The inflationary shock unfolding

The transition to an inflationary regime is underway, it's in an early phase . The macro transition is as follows:

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since February 28th - and, most importantly, there is no end in sight when

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions.…