I look at GFS, ECMWF, NAM, and HRRR in PredictWind and often get four different answers for the same day. I don’t understand how you decide which one to believe, and I’d like to learn how the pros think about it when issuing forecasts.

• What tools do the you use (ensemble plots, soundings, forecast discussions)?
• Which model do you lean on for different types of weather in your forecast area (winter storms, summer thunderstorms, hurricane tracks), and why?
• How does it change by lead time (Day 1 vs. Day 5)?
• What model quirks or known biases do you correct for without thinking?
• How do you quantify recent model performance (verification stats, last few cycles, a gut check against obs)?
• What patterns tell you a model is going off the rails?

An example from a real forecast, especially one where you picked wrong, would help me more than a general rule. Any advice is greatly appreciated. Thanks!