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The risk of relying on uncertain carbon removal projects can now be quantified using a new standardized metric that can be applied across all such schemes, irrespective of the technology used.

Researchers say Carbon at Risk (CaR), which measures the risk that carbon removal falls short of what was initially contracted, could help regulators, buyers, insurers and investors build diversified portfolios and unlock the massive investment needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

"The Carbon at Risk measure to manage carbon removal risk and guide portfolio construction" is published in Nature Climate Change .

Carbon removal risks lack a common scale

Carbon removal projects, ranging from nature-based approaches such as afforestation to more engineered carbon capture technologies, aim to take CO₂ out of the atmosphere and store it for a meaningful period of time.

All approaches come with varying degrees of risk that the carbon removal doesn't materialize, whether through…