The odds of waking up to snow on Christmas morning depend a lot on where you live.

In Anchorage, there has been at least an inch of snow on the ground on Dec. 25 about 94% of the time. In Miami, New Orleans and Houston, the odds are zero. Most of the country falls somewhere in between, and the main weather station tops 50% in only six states, according to NOAA’s climate normals .

How the Odds Are Calculated

The numbers come from NOAA’s 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, which show how often a weather station had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on a given day. NOAA uses the same bar for a white Christmas: snow on the ground, not just snow in the air.

This list uses one station per state, usually the main airport of the state’s biggest or best-known city. Some of those stations don’t record snow depth, so the closest NOAA station that does was used instead. Those are marked in the table.

These are historical odds, not a forecast.…