October 29, 2026 - 9:00 pm

Anyone who wants to determine how Nevada’s biggest political races will turn out is going to have to wait. You can learn only so much from early voting data.

Early voting in Nevada ends Friday. Nevada also has universal mail ballots. That means the majority of voters almost certainly won’t be voting on Election Day. While you can’t know how each individual voted, you can learn something by looking at the statistics documenting how many Democrats and Republicans have voted.

As of Wednesday night, Democrats had a significant lead in ballots returned by their voters. More than 223,000 Democrats have voted, compared with around 191,000 Republicans. This gives Democrats an edge of around 32,000 voters.

In keeping with past trends, Democrats are doing very well with mail ballots. Their mail ballot lead is more than 38,000. That is likely to grow as voters return mail ballots through Election Day. My guess is that Democrats will have a 50,000+ edge in mail voters by Tuesday.…