In case you haven’t noticed, things aren’t going great in the European Union, and Poland added a whole lot of fuel to the fire over the weekend.

While the crisis may have its roots in post-1989 domestic political divisions (hopefully some of our Polish politicos can chime in in comments), I will focus here on the wider factors and repercussions, namely how this is a battle between the EU and Polish sovereignists, how Ukraine exacerbates the crisis, what comes next, and what it could portend for the rest of the bloc and the war with Russia.

First, let’s briefly review the basics.

What Happened?

On Friday, a group of judges backed by the pro-EU government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk attempted to take control of Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal away from its chief justice, who is aligned with the EU-skeptic opposition and President Karol Nawrocki.

The government-backed judges declared that the chief justice was suspended from his duties.

Police surrounded the court and prevented the chief justice from…