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Summary

The only Nebius Group N.V. number I want to see growing faster than Q1 exit ARR is operating cash flow, as it sits at the center of the funding debate.

NBIS FY25 operating cash flow was only $401.9M. If that wasn't bad enough, that figure included $982.5M of customer advances under strategic customer agreements.

Management expects contract related cash flows to fund around 60% of 2026 CapEx, implying roughly $10.8B at the $18B midpoint of guidance.

Q1 and FY26 exit-ARR still matter, but cash conversion will show whether Nebius can fund its aggressive buildout.

Overall, I remain bullish on NBIS stock, although I’m keeping a close eye on broader risks tied to U.S. data center delays (not specific to Nebius, so far).

Erik Isakson/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Nebius Group ( NBIS ) is scheduled to release Q1 2026 earnings on Wednesday, May 13, 2026, before the market opens.…