A new RUSI report questions the future of Moscow’s strategic forces. Its conclusions leave crucial parts of the picture out.

A few days ago, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) released a report titled ‘Russia’s Nuclear Deterrent and Its Weapons Procurement’. The report examines the development of Russia’s nuclear triad amid stringent financial constraints and the rising threat of a potential US non-nuclear counterforce strike.

The author of the report, Sidharth Kaushal, makes conclusions based on the publications of Russian military experts in the journal ‘Voennaya Mysl’ (Military Thought), as well as established Western practices for analyzing Russia’s nuclear capabilities.

A British diagnosis of Russia’s nuclear future

Here are the key takeaways from the report:

Paradigm shift: Russia is being compelled to shift its focus from a posture of “assured retaliation” (increasing the survivability of mobile missile systems and submarine-launched ballistic forces to effectively counter a first strike)…