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Earnings Analysis

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Summary

Alphabet trades near my low-case valuation after a post-earnings selloff, offering a 16% margin of safety to intrinsic value.

Cloud revenue doubled with operating margins rising to 36.2%, and a $560.8B backlog supports robust forward growth despite Search monetization concerns.

I estimate intrinsic value at $337 per share, with the market pricing Alphabet just above my most conservative scenario of $272 per share.

Key risks include rising capex, dilution from equity offerings, uncertain Search ad pricing, and the impact of upcoming Anthropic and SpaceX valuations.

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Mr. Market took about $486 billion off Alphabet ( GOOG ) ( GOOGL ) on Thursday.…