With the MLB season officially in the books, the focus now shifts to the offseason. Tarik Skubal is the biggest free agent and his next-team market on Kalshi has reopened. The New York Mets have taken over the top spot from the Dodgers, with a 40% chance of landing him.

Within the last week, the Los Angeles Dodgers were favored to retain Skubal with a 44.5% chance, while the Mets had 25%. The Dodgers came down to 27% while the Mets stayed put. On Halloween, the Mets made the jump and jumped the Dodgers, with their price growing stronger since.

Kalshi settles based on which team Skubal is with by March 25, 2027. A $10 trade that he signs with the Mets profits $13.78.

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Mets trending up

The expectation, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan , is that Skubal will make his free-agent decision before the MLB lockout begins on December 1.…