Inflation has roared back. The Consumer Price Index hit 3.8% in April. That figure nearly doubles the Federal Reserve’s long-stated 2% target. Energy costs drove much of the jump. Gasoline prices surged. Producer prices climbed even faster at 6%. Businesses face higher input costs. They pass those along. The last time CPI reached these levels was May 2023. Back then the Fed responded with another rate increase. Stocks suffered. The S&P 500 sat deep in bear market territory. Corporate earnings took a hit from higher borrowing costs. History now repeats in uncomfortable ways. Yet the stakes feel higher this time around. Six rate cuts since September 2024 had markets pricing in easier policy ahead. Those expectations evaporated. The CME FedWatch tool now assigns meaningful odds to at least one rate hike by January 2027. More increases could follow if oil stays elevated. Traders shifted fast. So did several Fed officials. Oil tells much of the story. Iran attacked the Strait of Hormuz in February.…