On the eve of the US midterms (read at 00:41 UTC on 3 November 2026) we froze the prices of ten Polymarket markets on Congress. Yesterday they resolved. Every market's favourite won.

Here is the whole record, eve price beside the result, as MonitoringRoom now shows it on the page:

market (Polymarket) priced on the eve resolved

Democrats control the House 94.5 % YES

Republicans control the House 5.5 % NO

Democrats control the Senate 75.5 % YES

Republicans control the Senate 24.5 % NO

Balance of power: D Senate, D House 75.5 % YES

Balance of power: R Senate, D House 18.5 % NO

Balance of power: R Senate, R House 5.5 % NO

Balance of power: D Senate, R House 0.4 % NO

Balance of power: Other 0.1 % NO

Republican trifecta with a Senate supermajority 0.5 % NO

Outcomes were read from Polymarket's own market records on 5 November 2026 (00:46 UTC). The eve prices were frozen two days earlier and never rewritten.

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