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A study of hundreds of armed conflicts around the world finds that severe drought raises the risk of violent clashes. The study is the latest addition to a growing body of evidence showing that climate shocks spark conflict.

The research uses El Niño, the warm phase of the Pacific Ocean, as a kind of natural experiment. Every three to seven years, the climate phenomenon alters rainfall across much of the world, fueling heavier downpours in some regions and more arid weather in others.

When researchers analyzed 555 armed conflicts from 1950 to 2023, they found that, during El Niño, the risk of conflict grew. The risk was greatest, however, in places such as Central America and southern Africa, where El Niño gives rise to drought.…