Experts are sounding the alarm about the chance of a “super” El Niño this year, as the latest projections show that the Pacific Ocean is on track for an intense warmup. This could trigger a persistent—or potentially irreversible—climate shift.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, almost every major climate model points to El Niño arriving by May, with average sea surface temperatures on track to rise 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) by early summer. This would constitute a “strong” El Niño, which would have serious implications for global temperatures and weather patterns. But it could be even worse.

More extreme scenarios could lead to a climate regime shift—a large, sudden, and persistent change in the structure and function of Earth’s natural systems.…