Two numbers can describe the same tennis match and still be answering different questions. A historical Elo model summarizes past results. A bookmaker price incorporates a market, a margin, timing and information that may never appear in a match-result table.

Their disagreement is worth investigating. It is not, by itself, evidence that one of them is wrong.

We'll build a chart that makes those disagreements visible, then use player history to turn the biggest gap into a research question.

Disclosure: I maintain the CrawlPlant Actors used here. This article demonstrates data analysis, not a tested betting strategy. No profitability result is claimed.

Run this project: Get the code, sample data and finished outputs on GitHub . To fetch your own data, use the live recipe and follow the .env setup guide to add your APIFY_TOKEN . Actor calls can incur charges; the setup explains per-run limits.

Keep the player orientation fixed

Both probabilities must refer to the same player.…