“Is the AI bubble about to collapse?” You can’t open the business press this week without someone asking. Semafor says investors are getting more nervous , and Bloomberg has Wall Street CEOs and big money managers split on the risk . Most of what I read adds up the capital spending and stops there. That’s only half the story.

Kevin Ogunsua, Michael O’Grady, and I built Forrester’s AI Bubble Model to answer the question with freely available, reliable financial data, then we built a data pipeline that captures new filings and news reports as they come in so we can see what’s changing between quarters. Our new report, An AI Bubble Burst Is Not Imminent , introduces Forrester’s AI Bubble Model and what the audited financials told us as of October 2026. It also covers what that means for your enterprise AI strategy .

A Bubble Is Supply Built Ahead Of Demand

Our model reads two forces from public data. One force blows the bubble up; the second relieves the pressure to avoid a pop.

Force 1: Supply pressure.…