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Rethinking Trend Following: Optimal Regime-Dependent Allocation

Most trend-following research focuses on signal construction: how to detect trends better, faster, or earlier. The paper asks a different question, and arguably a more important one for investors: once a market regime has been identified, what is the optimal portfolio exposure in that regime?

That is the central novelty of the paper which is available here .

Traditional time-series momentum strategies typically impose exposures mechanically. In the standard two-regime version, the investor is fully long in an uptrend and fully short in a downtrend. More recent approaches enrich the signal by introducing more regimes, but they still place strong restrictions on the portfolio weights.…