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How online prediction markets got people betting on nuclear war

Mashable·6 months ago
#PSmsVY
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As Israel and the U.S. launched an attack on Iran in late February, which quickly spilled into a region-wide war, betters on prediction market platform Polymarket have been monetising on the prospect of a nuclear weapon detonation. In a since-deleted market on the platform, Polymarket users were betting on the chances of a nuclear weapon strike in 2026. But who is gaining from these bets, and is the issue more than ethical? Prediction markets are online platforms where people can place bets on pretty much everything — from how much a Pokémon card would cost to how many times Elon Musk is going to post on X on a given month, to who would win Best Picture at the Oscars. There are even bets on whether or not Jesus Christ will return by 2027. The most popular prediction platforms in the U.S. right now are Kalshi and Polymarket, both headquartered in New York City, but there are many others; just these two are worth $11 billion and $9 billion, respectively.…

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