The IRGC Navy struck 4 tankers doing oil transfers in the northern Persian Gulf and 3 more vessels hit mines west of Hormuz. Houthi attacks killed 3 people at an Aramco field and a Saudi airport. The US ordered non-emergency diplomatic staff out. Brent is above $111.

In past Hormuz scares, Iran held tens of millions of barrels on tankers offshore that could quietly release into the market and soften a price spike. A sustained US naval blockade drained all of that. There is no hidden reserve left to cushion a physical supply cut right now.

Tanker insurers will raise coverage costs this week and buyers pay that directly. Are you treating $111 as the floor heading into the weekend, or do you think a diplomatic move caps this before $120?