California’s billionaire tax is looking like a long shot, with prediction-market traders betting the controversial measure will go down in flames as voters prepare to decide 14 statewide propositions next week.

Kalshi and Polymarket International’s displayed markets put several proposals in strong positions, while others, including a voter ID requirement and a mandate for community health clinics, are drawing much lower passage estimates.

Early voting begins in Los Angeles County ahead of the Nov. 3 general election, allowing voters to cast their ballots at designated vote centers before Election Day. CHRIS TORRES/EPA/Shutterstock

California asked a judge to deny a Trump administration request to make the state set aside mail-in ballots of 20,000 suspected non-citizens, saying the lawsuit is a reckless political stunt in the run-up to the Nov. 3 midterm elections.…