Ryan O'Hanlon Oct 23, 2026, 03:09 AM ET

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Ryan O'Hanlon is a staff writer for ESPN.com. He's also the author of "Net Gains: Inside the Beautiful Game's Analytics Revolution."

It's probably going to be Harry Kane or Lamine Yamal -- the 33-year-old or the 19-year-old.

At least, that's what the prediction markets are telling us: Kane currently has about a two-in-three chance of winning the men's Ballon d'Or, Yamal a 28% chance, and then the remaining percentage points get split among Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi .

This is a silly award. You probably don't need me to tell you that, but it bears repeating since it seems as if the players themselves care more about it than ever before.

If you look back at the development of the odds, Messi was the favorite before the World Cup final and then Kane was the favorite after the World Cup final ...…