Real personal income excluding transfer receipts decreased by 0.31% in September.
Real personal income year-over-year is at or below the start level of all nine recessions since 1959.
Real personal income less transfer receipts sits at 0.31% off its July 2026 all-time high.
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Originally published on October 31, 2026
By Jennifer Nash
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which it bases its decisions. This
