Vladimir Putin is not pursuing a coherent plan for global dominance but instead is using disruption, coercion and opportunistic interventions to protect regime stability, preserve influence in Russia's neighborhood and weaken Western unity. | REUTERS

LONDON –

Four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Western observers still do not understand the Kremlin’s strategy.

Some think there is none and that Russia’s behavior is completely irrational and thus unpredictable. Others argue the opposite: Russia is enacting a carefully constructed, long-term revanchist vision, in which claiming Ukrainian territory is just the first step. Both explanations are wrong.

Russia has not undertaken its brutal war against Ukraine and upended Europe’s security architecture on a whim and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s portrayal of the war as a clash of civilizations — an existential struggle against a West bent on destroying Russia — is not mere theater.…