Unlike projecting how many jobs AI may eliminate over the next 10 years, or what a country’s birth rate might look like, there’s far less debate among policymakers about how large America’s older population will be in a decade’s time, and how many of them are likely to need direct care for disabilities.

By 2036, as the baby boomers continue to retire, the US population 65 and older is expected to grow from 65.6 million to 77.5 million people, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The number of people 85 and older is also expected to nearly double in that time, from 6.8 million to 11.1 million.

The question of whether the United States will have enough direct care workers — an umbrella term that refers to home health aides, personal care aides, and nursing assistants — looms large. These are workers, primarily women, who help older adults and people with disabilities bathe, dress, eat, take their medication, and generally get through a day, either in a nursing home or in someone’s own home.…