A "super" El Niño is now the most likely scenario from October 2026 to February 2027, according to a new forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center .

El Niño is the warmer phase of the natural El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle, a periodic shift in the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean that supercharges global temperatures, in turn impacting weather patterns and crops worldwide.

Now, in a new ENSO forecast published May 14, NOAA estimates that there's a 65% chance that the upcoming El Niño will be classified as strong or very strong starting in October, potentially placing it among the strongest in recorded history.

A "very strong" El Niño — meaning a 3.6-degree-Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) rise in sea surface temperatures, and unofficially called a "super" El Niño — is now the most probable scenario for the October-to-February period.

There is also now an 82% chance that El Niño will arrive between now and July , with the…