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Market Outlook

Gold & Precious Metals

Summary

Central banks purchased above 1,000 tonnes annually for three consecutive years (2022–2024), establishing a sovereign demand floor that preceded the return of Western investment flows.

ETF and private capital re-entered in 2025, adding 801 tonnes, but Western portfolios remain under-allocated at 0.17% of U.S. private financial assets vs. a historical norm closer to 1–2%, leaving significant room for expansion without requiring new buyer categories.

Crypto-native demand is forming a structurally independent third layer through tokenized gold (35–40t, $6B+), stablecoin reserves (Tether $20B), and yield-bearing structures, introducing gold as productive collateral rather than passive reserve in digital financial systems.

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Gold's current rally is rooted in a sequential expansion of structurally distinct buyer classes, sovereign, institutional, and crypto-native, each adding demand without displacing prior layers, in contrast…