The rapid fall of the rupee has forced policymakers to come up with some quick solutions, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi calling for austerity measures that reduce the need to expend foreign currency for imports. Then, the government also hiked the import duty on gold, silver, and platinum. But economists don’t expect this to move to meaningfully bring down the gold import bill.

“Historically, the effectiveness of gold import duty hikes in controlling imports has been mixed,” Nomura economists Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi said on Wednesday. “When India raised duties to 10% in 2013, gold imports did decline initially, but gold smuggling increased to meet suppressed demand.…