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Summary

All five G10 central banks that met delivered some form of hawkish holds. The Bank of Japan was the least convincing, and the swap market barely changed the extent of the anticipated tightening this year.

The US appears to be among the most able to deal with the supply shock spurred by the war in Iran. Second, economic data has borne this out.

Germany's March manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2 from 50.9 in February, the first above 50-reading since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The UK's economic diary include the final April service and composite PMIs and the April construction PMI.

The changes in the dollar against the Mexican peso enjoy around the same 30-day rolling correlation with the S&P 500 and the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index.

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Three developments stand out from last week. First, all five G10 central banks that met delivered some form of hawkish holds.…