Grid bots are sold on a simple promise: price goes up and down, the bot buys low and sells high on every swing, and "grid profit" ticks up all day. The number on the bot's screen is real. It's also only half the account: it counts the completed grids and leaves out the coin the bot is holding.

We wanted to know how both halves add up on real prices. So we started a fresh grid on Bitcoin at the beginning of every month from January 2022 to October 2026, 58 months in all, replayed each one on 1-minute candles, and compared it with simply buying Bitcoin with the same money.

The short version: the grid finished positive in 64% of months against 55% for holding, with half the swings. But its average month was −0.39% against +2.03% for holding.…