Washington | Oct. 29, 2026, 5:00 a.m. ET | 8 min read

Political polls are just a “snapshot in time, not a predictor” of how an election will turn out, the axiom goes.

During the 2026 midterm election cycle, that caveat seemed especially apt in some key statewide primaries – including for Michigan and Wisconsin – which turned out quite differently from how the polls had suggested.

In another twist, “polls” that were widely cited and, in one case, incorporated into The New York Times’ average of major polls turned out to be fake. The two most prominent fake pollsters ultimately acknowledged what they had done, calling it a “social experiment” to expose a lack of media vetting and oversight of polls.

Now, on the eve of the Nov. 3 midterms, polling is again in the spotlight. As things stand, the Democrats are on track to retake control of the U.S. House, and could win a majority in the U.S. Senate. Or so suggest the real polls, as cited by experts.

Umit Bektas/Reuters

The U.S.…