(Photo illustration by Pew Research Center)

Americans see Democrats as having a better chance to win a House majority than take control of the Senate, according to a new Pew Research Center survey. And the public’s expectations differ widely by party.

Americans’ midterm predictions largely match their partisan affiliation

% of U.S. adults who say the __ will hold a majority in the Senate …

% of U.S. adults who say the __ will hold a majority in the House of Representatives …

Note: No answer responses are not shown.

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 4, 2026.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

Americans’ midterm predictions largely match their partisan affiliation

Group Chamber Democratic Party Republican Party

All U.S. adults Senate 46 48

Rep/Lean Rep Senate 22 75

Dem/Lean Dem Senate 71 27

All U.S. adults House 55 40

Rep/Lean Rep House 30 68

Dem/Lean Dem House 80 17

Note: No answer responses are not shown.

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 28-Oct.…