The Valero Houston Refinery in Houston, Texas, US, on Friday, March 13, 2026. The worst supply disruption in the history of the oil market is showing no signs of abating, with crude prices surging since the Iran war began. Photographer: Mark Felix/Bloomberg via Getty Images

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U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed rollback of methane emissions rules would do little to lower oil and natural gas prices, according to the Environmental Protection Agency’s own economic modeling.

Trump and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced the proposal Tuesday in Lubbock, Texas, in a bid to lower regulatory costs and support domestic energy production.

“When owners and operators can produce, America benefits with lower prices,” Zeldin said in EPA’s announcement.

The EPA projects that the changes would lower U.S. crude prices by 11 cents a barrel in 2027, or 0.14%, while increasing domestic oil production by 0.09%. That amounts to roughly one extra barrel for every 1,000 the U.S.…