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Carbon dioxide levels are set to surge this year amid a powerful El Niño, a report warns.

During El Niño, warm waters pool in the eastern Pacific, driving warmer weather across the globe while also fueling heavier rainfall in some places and more drought in others. In regions facing severe heat and drought, plants draw down less carbon dioxide, while soils release more back into the atmosphere. Hotter, drier conditions also spur more wildfires and degrade wetlands and tundra, unleashing still more heat-trapping gas. Warmer oceans also absorb less carbon dioxide.

About half of the carbon dioxide emitted by humans each year is absorbed by natural systems.…