Richmond, Texas | Oct. 26, 2026, 2:31 p.m. ET | 6 min read

Lined up outside an event center in Fort Bend County, a few hundred supporters of Texas Attorney General and U.S. Senate candidate Ken Paxton chat and smile in the cool October sun.

Some of those smiles are nervous.

“I’m worried,” admits Marlene Keplinger, as she waits to enter the rally in this well-manicured Houston suburb, where Mr. Paxton and his opponent, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, are vying for swing voters. Behind her, John Bickett says he’s worried, too.

“Talarico has lots of money. You see him on the TV every five minutes,” he adds.

Fort Bend used to be reliably Republican, but as it has grown and diversified, it has become more Democratic. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris narrowly defeated Donald Trump here.

When hundreds of Mr.…