NOAA expects a below-normal 2026 hurricane season just as Caribbean rates hit their annual lows. The smart money books fall now, with a safety net attached.

storm clouds near DFW

NOAA’s 2026 Hurricane Forecast

NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season calls for a below-normal year : 8 to 14 named storms against an average season’s 14, with 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major ones. The agency puts 55% odds on a below-normal season and just 10% on an above-normal one, driven largely by an El Nino expected to develop and strengthen through the fall, which tends to shear apart Atlantic storms before they organize. NOAA states 70% confidence in those ranges.

That is about as favorable a setup as the forecast ever offers for the September and October Caribbean.

Why Fall Is The Value Window

Hurricane season is the reason fall Caribbean pricing collapses every year.…