Neil Paine Apr 20, 2026, 07:30 AM ET

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Neil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight.

The 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs are underway, and with them will come one of the most fascinating postseasons in recent years. With the old order fading -- the two-time defending Cup champ (and three-time East champ) Florida Panthers missed the field entirely -- and no obvious successor in place, the race for the Cup feels as open, and as consequential, as it has in years.

To help sort out which players might step up and make this postseason their own, let's consult the Goals Above Replacement (GAR) rankings -- my version of "all-in-one" metrics like Hockey-Reference's Point Shares. The core philosophy of GAR is to quantify a player's total contribution (across offense, defense and goaltending) relative to a replacement-level player at the same position.…