Senate Republicans see Iowa moving their way and Ohio slipping, with pessimism growing over Alaska and Kansas.

Why it matters: Even when they squint, top Republicans struggle to see a majority beyond 51 seats, according to half a dozen senior operatives.

✈️ A combination of paid media and Air Force One visits has bolstered GOP confidence that they'll hold South Carolina and Mississippi.

But across the map, the outlook looks bleak, with only a few bright spots.

Zoom out: Republicans are fighting a two-front war: unprecedented Democratic enthusiasm and undeniable Republican apathy.

🏈 President Trump's strategy is to whip up the MAGA faithful with rallies in the reddest parts of red states.

😱 "The Red Scream is my biggest concern, not the blue wave," said Alex Castellanos, a veteran Republican consultant who has worked to help Trump get elected.

‼️ "Republicans and independents are going to be screaming for attention, and many of them, including those who voted for Trump, may show their frustration by…