BEIJING — A Chinese firm long tied to the country’s vast internet controls has set its sights on something more ambitious. Geedge Networks wants to build systems that do not simply watch citizens. They aim to forecast who might challenge the state.

Leaked internal records show the company, seller of a commercial version of the Great Firewall, has explored artificial intelligence tools. These would scan location data, telecom records, social media patterns and online behavior. The goal? Spot signals of future criticism or unrest. The New York Times reported the effort on Monday, drawing on research from Vanderbilt University that examined roughly 100,000 leaked documents.

Researchers described the project as still in development. Yet its direction stands out. Instead of reacting to protests or posts, the technology would act first. It would flag individuals as political risks ahead of any public move. Short. Direct.…