This post is an adaptation of YNAB's fan-favorite newsletter, Loose Change .

It has been impossible to escape the escalating uncertainty of the tariffs. I called my HVAC guy late on a Friday afternoon because we’ve got a renovation in motion. Would tariffs affect the (already-expensive) Fujitsu I haven’t yet ordered? He’d been in business for 40 years and said, with some exhaustion, he couldn’t get a straight answer from his suppliers.

The Wall Street Journal ran a headline last week: “Markets in Freefall.” J.P. Morgan rated the chances of a recession this year at 60%.

Meanwhile, the rationalists among us point to historical graphs that show other instances of market freefalls. Helpful articles take an academic spin on the raw panic: “What is a Bear Market?”

Still, I try to acclimate. It reminds me of watching early-pandemic major league baseball games with cardboard cutouts of fans in the otherwise-empty stands.…