At midnight on Wednesday, *Crimson Desert*, the ambitious new open-world game by Pearl Abyss, was running second only to *Grand Theft Auto 6* on Kalshi’s prediction market for Game of the Year 2026 at The Game Awards.

It had just hit a 25% likelihood to win the prize, ahead of *Resident Evil Requiem *at 12%. Trading on *Crimson Desert *had brought *GTA 6* down under 40% for the first time.

Here, Kalshi’s community of prognosticators were betting, was a real contender: a game that could take the fight to Rockstar’s behemoth, and maybe even win.