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Will We Ever Be Able To Forecast Volcanic Eruptions Like Weather? | Quanta Magazine

Quanta Magazine·Robin George Andrews May 8, 2026·6 months ago
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It should be possible, but getting there will require a greater understanding of subsurface physics.

Celcius Pictor for Quanta Magazine

Introduction

I n the summer of 1991, Pinatubo, a volcano in the Philippines, self-destructed. The eruption started on June 12, and three days later it culminated in a tremendous explosion. By the time pyroclastic flows — incandescent avalanches of molten rock and gas — tumbled down its sterilized slopes, Pinatubo’s peak had been obliterated and replaced by a 2.5-kilometer-wide chasm.

The eruption killed more than 800 people, mainly because roofs, weighed down by rain-saturated ash, collapsed. But it could have been so much worse : About 250,000 people, across multiple cities and a sprawling U.S. Air Force base, lived in the volcano’s shadow.…

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