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Polling the Polling Experts: How Accurate and Useful Are Polls These Days?
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Polling the Polling Experts: How Accurate and Useful Are Polls These Days?

Knowledge at Wharton·@HashtagPLUS·5 months ago
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Turn on the Internet, pick up your telephone or cell phone, read a newspaper or watch television: No matter what the communication vehicle is, polls and the reporting of poll results are ubiquitous: “For our end-of-the-year Special Report on Air Travel in 2007 … eight questions about how your air travel experiences in 2007 stack up against those of 2006…” “ Twenty-three percent of those questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll released Thursday say that compared to other presidents in American history, President Bush is the worst ever…” “What is your favorite car — the Lamborghini, Lotus, Aston Martin, Massarati, Ferrari…?” When Wharton statistics professor Robert A. Stine reviewed the exotic car poll that his 11-year-old son had created for a sixth grade class assignment, the questions he raised in many ways reflect the major concerns that surround today’s polling landscape: Are the polls accurate? Scientific? Reliable? Can the questions be manipulated to get a particular answer?…

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