I run a full node and track every coin that gets spent, sorted by how long it had been held. I've mapped all 3billion UTXOs in Bitcoins history, along with minute by minute BTC price to Jan 2012. The data an LLM cannot get you, but a bare metal full node (I built by hand) plus my data engineer experience can. Here's what happened in the 12 hours after the Binance hot wallet was drained (20:15 UTC Oct 29 to 08:15 UTC Oct 30).

Long-term holders (coins held 155+ days):

- 99.94% of their 16.3M BTC didn't move.

- Coins held 1 year or more moved 6,990 BTC. That's an ordinary half-day: 21 of the previous 60 saw more.

- Supply held 1 year or more grew 12,566 BTC on Oct 29.

Short-term coins did the moving:

- 94% of the BTC that moved had been held under 5 months.

- Coins held 1 day to 1 month moved 63,317 BTC, the most of any half-day in the past 30 days.

- Coins under a month old realized about $294M in losses (spent below what they cost).…