“With respect to Artemis IV, however, we’ve got a large number of firsts that reduce the likelihood of mission success,” Precourt said. “We need to keep our eyes on numerous required fuelings for the lander. I think the last estimate is around 22 flights.”

Precourt did not name Starship, but he could only be referring to the SpaceX vehicle. NASA’s other lunar lander for human missions, Blue Origin’s Blue Moon, will not be using orbital refueling as part of its initial mission design. The safety panel almost certainly would have obtained this estimated number of refuelings, 22, from discussions with NASA officials as part of its deliberations during quarterly meetings.

After I posted Precourt’s estimate on the social media site X, SpaceX founder Elon Musk replied that NASA’s safety panel estimate was not accurate. “That’s way too high,” Musk said .…