Tim Travis 6.24K Followers

Summary

Patria Investments sold off sharply after Brazil's election, but most fee income is not tied to the real, and costs are largely in local currency.

PAX's fee-earning AUM reached $48.9B, with 44% exposed to soft currencies; only real estate and certain carry are materially impacted by FX moves.

At $9.77, PAX trades at 7x LTM distributable earnings, a historic low and a 39% discount to Vinci Compass, despite resilient forward distributable earnings and a 6.7% yield.

I estimate fair value at $11.00–$13.50 per share, with downside to $7.70 in a severe Brazil stress scenario; near-term results hinge on fundraising and REIT fees.

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17% In One Session

Patria Investments (PAX) closed Monday at $9.77, down 17% from Friday's $11.74 close and 39% below its 2025 closing price of $15.89. Brazil elected Lula to a fourth term on Sunday.…