With a U.S.-Iran deal (maybe?) taking shape in coming days, the oil market that follows will look different than what preceded the war.

Why it matters: The emerging deal — which would re-open the Strait of Hormuz while nuclear talks proceed — could return large amounts of barrels to the market.

It's not a moment too soon as global oil stockpiles, which have somewhat tempered the crisis, are drawn down at record pace.

Reality check: Things won't be normal for a long time, and the postwar definition of normal is fluid, too.

A few near-term and long-term things to watch...

😨 Confidence: In the near term, "It's all about whether vessel owners and crews feel safe transiting the Strait of Hormuz," said oil analyst Ben Cahill of UT-Austin.

He notes confusion about whether Iran will impose some kind of fees, safety, insurance rates and more.

"It could be a stop-and-start process as risk-averse shippers work through these uncertainties," he tells me via email.

🕰️ Timelines: "Following the clearance of any…